* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 08/27/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 41 46 53 62 71 76 82 80 79 75 75 70 66 63 60 V (KT) LAND 30 36 41 46 53 62 71 76 82 80 79 75 75 70 66 63 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 53 59 62 64 65 66 63 59 54 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 11 10 9 6 5 5 7 12 7 6 8 9 16 13 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 0 0 3 13 7 2 0 0 -5 -2 0 9 0 SHEAR DIR 16 333 308 306 297 237 185 143 94 82 98 133 152 188 251 250 263 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.7 26.5 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 162 161 162 160 158 157 151 145 140 127 119 114 111 104 85 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.2 -50.5 -49.5 -49.9 -49.6 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -49.4 -49.9 -49.2 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 89 86 85 84 82 82 80 74 71 67 65 58 55 54 53 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 23 23 24 26 26 28 29 31 30 32 30 32 30 28 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 33 48 62 68 65 85 95 108 120 119 115 113 106 98 71 50 19 200 MB DIV 159 142 137 149 141 120 109 108 60 28 -7 27 19 27 6 13 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 -3 -5 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 3 5 11 6 LAND (KM) 1255 1252 1262 1281 1297 1266 1203 1183 1228 1289 1305 1321 1326 1325 1313 1312 1286 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 27 24 25 33 29 21 9 7 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 9. 13. 17. 16. 17. 13. 15. 11. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 6. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 23. 32. 41. 46. 52. 50. 49. 45. 45. 40. 36. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.5 110.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 08/27/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 145.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.88 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -54.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 41.9% 24.6% 17.3% 0.0% 34.8% 63.7% 52.4% Logistic: 7.9% 54.8% 27.8% 19.3% 4.2% 28.4% 32.0% 8.5% Bayesian: 3.9% 34.5% 34.7% 14.6% 1.3% 34.8% 43.2% 5.4% Consensus: 7.7% 43.7% 29.0% 17.1% 1.8% 32.7% 46.3% 22.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 39.0% 16.0% 2.0% 1.0% 13.0% 36.0% 62.0% SDCON: 6.3% 41.3% 22.5% 9.5% 1.4% 22.8% 41.1% 42.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 08/27/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##