* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 08/27/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 48 62 71 77 77 78 71 69 64 61 58 56 50 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 48 62 71 77 77 78 71 69 64 61 58 56 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 29 31 35 40 44 47 49 49 48 46 44 41 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 10 8 11 10 9 8 6 12 11 8 6 13 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 1 0 -4 -1 0 12 5 2 -4 -3 -4 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 248 269 296 270 252 228 212 182 133 109 111 130 152 203 227 249 237 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.4 26.3 25.4 23.8 22.3 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 168 167 165 162 162 150 145 141 135 126 126 117 101 85 75 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.3 -51.0 -49.7 -50.1 -49.3 -49.8 -49.8 -50.6 -50.1 -50.1 -49.4 -49.7 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 90 91 89 87 84 80 77 76 72 74 70 69 64 60 57 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 21 22 23 26 27 29 29 31 29 31 30 28 27 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 15 27 37 38 52 93 109 112 115 100 96 74 76 48 34 200 MB DIV 167 152 150 146 162 119 87 68 108 59 22 29 18 -3 25 13 23 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -3 0 0 4 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 12 18 LAND (KM) 1079 1067 1056 1041 1009 1013 954 967 995 1005 1007 990 993 1019 1058 1083 1004 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.4 11.1 12.0 13.7 15.4 16.7 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.6 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.1 108.8 109.6 110.5 112.4 114.4 116.5 118.2 119.4 120.3 121.0 122.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 12 12 13 13 11 8 7 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 18 19 27 23 25 19 10 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 17. 25. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 33. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 17. 19. 21. 18. 19. 16. 13. 10. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 23. 37. 46. 52. 52. 53. 46. 44. 39. 36. 33. 31. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 107.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 08/27/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -5.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 155.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.93 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 42.1% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 32.4% 63.2% 0.0% Logistic: 11.7% 65.8% 37.7% 28.5% 3.5% 51.3% 52.5% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 17.1% 10.2% 4.6% 0.1% 5.3% 3.6% 1.6% Consensus: 4.1% 41.6% 23.3% 11.1% 1.2% 29.7% 39.8% 5.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 13.0% 76.0% SDCON: 3.0% 27.3% 13.6% 6.0% 0.6% 16.8% 26.4% 40.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 08/27/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##