* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 08/26/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 42 48 59 70 77 85 86 86 82 79 78 73 72 68 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 42 48 59 70 77 85 86 86 82 79 78 73 72 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 41 47 52 59 62 62 61 59 56 52 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 1 2 8 6 7 5 6 6 6 13 8 4 10 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 2 1 -1 0 0 6 10 3 -5 -3 0 0 5 6 SHEAR DIR 237 238 338 299 266 252 204 212 177 130 88 88 86 182 241 237 245 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.4 28.5 28.1 27.7 26.8 26.2 26.1 25.0 24.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 165 169 165 163 159 159 149 144 140 130 124 123 112 102 90 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -49.7 -49.7 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.5 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 91 91 91 89 86 82 79 76 77 75 74 74 70 65 61 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 20 22 23 26 27 30 30 32 32 32 33 30 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 24 22 34 46 50 68 95 102 97 102 102 94 88 81 47 200 MB DIV 187 176 172 144 132 122 103 97 75 68 29 26 48 2 38 45 36 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 3 0 2 0 0 2 5 14 16 LAND (KM) 1087 1092 1093 1077 1059 1047 1048 1011 1019 1006 1014 1013 985 957 951 933 937 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.5 11.2 12.7 14.2 15.5 16.8 18.0 19.0 20.1 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.8 108.6 109.3 110.1 111.9 113.8 115.6 117.3 118.5 119.7 120.7 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 19 17 22 25 21 32 18 11 5 3 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 18. 26. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. 36. 34. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 12. 17. 24. 24. 25. 23. 21. 20. 16. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 14. 7. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 34. 46. 53. 60. 61. 61. 57. 54. 53. 48. 47. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 107.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 08/26/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -10.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 162.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.96 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.4% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.6% 63.8% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 63.7% 41.9% 29.9% 3.2% 48.1% 58.3% 26.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 15.7% 6.9% 2.1% 0.1% 27.0% 21.9% 6.8% Consensus: 3.1% 38.3% 23.6% 10.7% 1.1% 35.5% 48.0% 11.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 31.0% 11.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 14.0% 23.0% SDCON: 2.5% 34.6% 17.3% 5.8% 1.0% 19.2% 31.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 08/26/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##