* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 08/26/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 58 64 65 66 67 66 63 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 58 64 65 66 67 66 63 59 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 33 37 41 45 46 46 45 44 44 43 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 3 6 8 9 3 5 8 3 2 4 4 10 18 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 7 5 1 0 -2 -1 4 9 5 -1 0 -4 -3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 292 284 328 7 12 357 209 200 233 272 140 345 345 191 184 151 141 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.8 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.3 27.9 27.9 27.0 27.3 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 162 166 166 165 162 159 159 144 144 134 137 122 121 119 119 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -51.0 -49.9 -50.2 -49.4 -49.7 -49.2 -49.6 -49.3 -49.5 -49.3 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 92 91 91 91 89 86 83 81 80 77 75 71 68 65 62 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 24 30 25 43 43 53 88 125 139 137 144 161 158 172 159 200 MB DIV 175 173 202 189 153 128 110 123 115 90 52 11 18 26 25 45 33 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -6 -5 -1 3 6 4 5 2 -1 -2 4 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1108 1127 1151 1170 1176 1156 1117 1066 984 960 990 1093 1228 1378 1513 1553 1493 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.9 11.0 12.5 14.1 15.8 17.5 18.8 19.7 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.0 111.4 112.6 114.0 115.6 117.2 119.2 121.4 123.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 5 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 22 23 26 28 27 23 32 8 7 5 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 18. 27. 33. 36. 38. 40. 41. 41. 40. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 33. 39. 40. 41. 42. 41. 38. 34. 33. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 107.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 08/26/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -17.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.93 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 178.4 -33.0 to 170.5 1.00 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -30.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.8% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 27.9% 63.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 39.6% 19.1% 11.7% 1.0% 25.9% 50.9% 38.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 10.4% 13.1% 2.7% 0.0% 5.2% 5.7% 63.3% Consensus: 1.1% 28.6% 18.1% 4.8% 0.3% 19.6% 40.0% 34.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 8.0% 58.0% SDCON: 1.0% 20.8% 11.0% 2.9% 0.1% 11.3% 24.0% 46.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 08/26/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##