* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 08/26/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 36 43 59 71 81 87 94 94 93 91 86 84 81 78 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 36 43 59 71 81 87 94 94 93 91 86 84 81 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 48 57 66 71 74 74 73 72 68 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 3 7 10 4 3 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 6 4 2 0 -1 -1 5 6 1 -4 -3 -3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 220 238 261 29 356 316 299 238 236 192 211 169 106 102 140 252 251 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 27.2 26.8 26.1 25.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 162 163 160 162 160 158 155 151 149 136 131 123 114 105 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -49.7 -49.7 -49.6 -49.5 -49.8 -49.5 -49.4 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 91 91 90 91 91 87 84 81 80 77 74 71 67 61 57 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 15 16 18 23 26 28 29 33 35 36 37 35 36 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 31 28 31 33 56 60 56 95 118 116 113 122 122 116 116 200 MB DIV 133 176 185 199 192 148 139 126 80 121 86 44 30 5 2 16 34 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 1 4 6 5 3 1 -1 1 1 4 20 LAND (KM) 1095 1122 1152 1176 1195 1178 1155 1129 1023 953 940 978 1064 1161 1219 1253 1252 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 10.3 11.4 13.0 14.8 16.7 18.3 19.5 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.3 108.0 108.7 109.4 110.7 111.9 113.2 114.6 116.3 117.9 119.7 121.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 12 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 24 24 21 21 26 28 22 23 12 12 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 9. 19. 28. 35. 40. 42. 44. 46. 46. 46. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 22. 26. 31. 33. 31. 30. 25. 23. 19. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 39. 51. 61. 67. 74. 74. 73. 71. 66. 64. 61. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 106.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 08/26/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -14.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 177.0 -33.0 to 170.5 1.00 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 57.3% 34.3% 23.3% 2.8% 40.3% 57.8% 50.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.2% 7.6% 1.5% 0.0% 2.3% 3.0% 40.1% Consensus: 1.9% 21.2% 14.0% 8.3% 0.9% 14.2% 20.3% 30.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 29.0% 13.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0% 26.0% SDCON: 1.4% 25.1% 13.5% 4.6% 0.9% 8.1% 13.6% 28.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 08/26/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##