* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 08/26/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 29 37 47 56 59 59 59 60 58 56 56 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 29 37 47 56 59 59 59 60 58 56 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 27 30 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 9 6 3 9 5 3 3 11 11 12 5 10 13 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 5 10 2 1 -2 0 1 4 2 0 -4 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 333 294 268 258 329 32 311 319 268 258 258 259 204 154 151 201 154 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.3 27.3 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 161 162 164 163 160 159 157 152 148 138 125 123 124 130 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -51.2 -50.3 -51.3 -50.2 -50.3 -49.4 -49.7 -49.1 -49.6 -49.0 -49.8 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 90 91 91 90 91 88 87 84 82 78 75 72 68 65 59 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 30 33 34 34 48 48 44 57 93 96 106 115 143 157 168 200 MB DIV 92 135 163 185 202 178 144 108 105 58 60 17 26 36 13 21 5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -4 1 4 8 4 8 3 11 2 5 1 1 LAND (KM) 1069 1088 1126 1157 1191 1218 1177 1133 1062 948 945 994 1121 1307 1505 1662 1786 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.5 10.7 12.2 14.1 16.2 18.1 19.5 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.7 107.4 108.1 108.8 110.1 111.3 112.5 113.9 115.6 117.7 119.9 122.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 11 13 14 13 12 13 12 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 26 22 23 24 30 32 26 22 26 11 11 8 0 0 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 9. 19. 29. 36. 41. 44. 46. 48. 48. 48. 48. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 17. 27. 36. 39. 39. 39. 40. 38. 36. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 106.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 08/26/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -18.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.93 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 155.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.93 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -6.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 21.8% 7.8% 4.3% 0.3% 16.5% 15.1% 25.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% Consensus: 0.3% 7.8% 2.9% 1.5% 0.1% 5.5% 5.0% 14.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 08/26/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##