* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 08/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 54 63 69 82 86 86 78 72 63 57 50 43 38 30 24 V (KT) LAND 40 47 54 63 69 82 86 86 78 72 63 57 50 43 38 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 51 56 62 71 77 77 72 64 54 45 37 30 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 9 10 9 13 14 19 12 15 21 26 23 24 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 1 4 7 3 3 0 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 4 349 300 309 323 270 255 257 266 264 216 220 230 240 230 236 257 SST (C) 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.5 27.1 26.5 26.0 24.7 23.4 23.0 23.7 23.3 22.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 163 163 161 159 149 135 129 123 109 95 91 99 95 89 90 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -49.6 -49.7 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.8 -50.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 79 76 77 74 70 63 57 51 52 51 52 52 53 55 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 20 22 22 25 26 28 27 27 25 23 22 18 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 48 46 35 33 41 52 61 61 42 28 24 14 9 0 -2 200 MB DIV 122 110 93 100 81 68 67 28 5 17 9 6 3 10 2 26 -20 700-850 TADV -16 -17 -14 -8 -7 -5 -3 0 -2 5 9 7 5 6 9 12 12 LAND (KM) 987 953 924 901 891 906 908 937 1032 1136 1216 1332 1401 1455 1538 1657 1810 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 29 31 22 16 13 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 14. 14. 11. 8. 6. 1. -0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 23. 29. 42. 46. 46. 38. 32. 23. 17. 10. 3. -2. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 112.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 08/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 13.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 8.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 6.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 55.4% 42.2% 31.4% 20.3% 50.6% 63.4% 20.3% Logistic: 11.0% 38.8% 15.0% 10.7% 2.6% 15.9% 10.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 13.2% 26.9% 25.4% 14.1% 0.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 12.9% 40.4% 27.6% 18.7% 7.9% 22.9% 24.9% 7.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 36.0% 14.0% 7.0% 6.0% 18.0% 19.0% 9.0% SDCON: 9.9% 38.2% 20.8% 12.8% 6.9% 20.4% 21.9% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 08/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##