* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 08/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 44 52 60 72 81 81 81 74 68 61 55 49 43 35 28 V (KT) LAND 30 36 44 52 60 72 81 81 81 74 68 61 55 49 43 35 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 43 48 58 67 73 73 70 63 54 46 39 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 5 6 10 9 11 13 12 11 15 22 21 18 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 2 0 5 4 4 3 9 8 1 SHEAR DIR 29 24 346 297 297 291 242 266 253 268 215 191 194 228 227 239 260 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.8 27.5 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.2 23.3 24.1 24.4 23.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 164 163 162 159 152 139 129 123 115 104 94 104 107 95 101 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 -49.9 -50.3 -49.6 -49.8 -49.5 -49.9 -49.4 -49.4 -49.9 -50.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 74 74 71 65 62 55 53 54 51 54 52 51 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 22 24 26 27 29 28 27 26 24 21 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 31 45 48 53 49 46 41 46 70 64 63 37 48 26 38 19 14 200 MB DIV 124 116 118 87 106 75 69 50 21 21 18 0 27 19 7 10 12 700-850 TADV -6 -14 -17 -10 -7 -13 -1 -2 5 0 10 2 4 0 8 0 7 LAND (KM) 943 949 911 887 880 908 899 948 984 1060 1178 1317 1428 1527 1661 1814 1853 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 25 28 25 16 15 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 15. 18. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. 13. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 20. 18. 17. 13. 9. 6. 4. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 30. 42. 51. 51. 51. 44. 38. 31. 25. 19. 13. 5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 111.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 08/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 14.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 9.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -9.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.70 7.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 6.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -30.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 55.8% 40.4% 25.4% 0.0% 42.8% 63.1% 45.4% Logistic: 9.9% 48.7% 21.9% 16.8% 3.3% 25.2% 18.2% 1.5% Bayesian: 3.9% 21.8% 19.2% 8.3% 0.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 9.2% 42.1% 27.2% 16.8% 1.4% 23.2% 27.2% 15.7% DTOPS: 12.0% 18.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 14.0% 12.0% SDCON: 10.6% 30.0% 16.1% 8.9% 1.2% 14.6% 20.6% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 08/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##