* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 08/22/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 37 46 54 63 78 86 86 85 79 76 68 63 58 53 49 44 V (KT) LAND 30 37 46 54 63 78 86 86 85 79 76 68 63 58 53 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 35 41 48 55 71 83 90 92 88 82 75 66 58 50 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 10 7 6 9 6 5 8 12 8 12 16 15 15 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 3 6 0 7 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 199 40 28 14 298 308 288 280 245 256 235 200 202 208 232 238 264 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.2 28.8 27.7 27.0 26.6 25.9 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 163 162 161 156 152 140 133 129 122 116 116 116 115 112 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.6 -50.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 78 75 74 74 70 67 63 62 58 53 49 47 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 16 16 19 21 23 24 26 25 26 24 23 21 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 30 37 48 54 63 66 56 48 64 78 86 78 72 75 67 66 30 200 MB DIV 132 126 121 114 114 109 83 38 47 53 41 29 9 -13 7 -7 4 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -10 -14 -12 -10 -7 -6 4 -4 8 4 3 4 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 993 1064 1070 1082 1078 1076 1064 1021 1037 1055 1116 1208 1356 1525 1713 1817 1925 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.9 17.2 18.5 19.6 20.4 21.2 21.7 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.0 114.1 115.0 115.8 117.1 118.3 119.3 120.5 121.7 123.3 124.9 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 26 28 35 34 19 12 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 20. 19. 20. 15. 12. 10. 6. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 24. 33. 48. 56. 56. 55. 49. 46. 39. 33. 28. 23. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 111.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 08/22/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 15.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -10.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.76 8.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 6.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 72% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 59.6% 44.2% 33.8% 0.0% 62.2% 72.5% 47.9% Logistic: 29.8% 73.9% 53.3% 45.7% 14.7% 54.5% 42.4% 9.5% Bayesian: 28.5% 60.4% 69.1% 41.1% 3.8% 26.0% 11.1% 5.1% Consensus: 24.1% 64.6% 55.5% 40.2% 6.2% 47.6% 42.0% 20.8% DTOPS: 7.0% 58.0% 44.0% 17.0% 10.0% 11.0% 25.0% 2.0% SDCON: 15.5% 61.3% 49.7% 28.6% 8.1% 29.3% 33.5% 11.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 08/22/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##