* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 08/22/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 31 39 49 58 79 90 97 100 92 88 81 77 70 67 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 31 39 49 58 79 90 97 100 92 88 81 77 70 67 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 29 33 38 44 60 77 90 91 84 78 75 71 69 66 62 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 5 11 6 7 8 8 12 10 7 3 4 5 7 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 2 -3 -8 -3 -3 2 -2 2 -1 6 7 SHEAR DIR 36 352 14 25 37 58 12 334 307 273 282 49 161 200 254 257 231 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.2 27.0 26.2 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.2 24.5 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 167 165 163 163 160 148 135 126 128 124 124 124 116 109 93 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -50.2 -49.6 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 81 84 84 81 78 76 70 65 59 55 54 55 56 54 54 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 14 16 18 24 26 29 33 31 33 32 31 28 26 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 8 16 24 39 47 59 48 52 66 95 103 115 113 107 73 65 30 200 MB DIV 132 138 158 149 143 111 52 52 24 -29 -4 24 -2 21 5 23 35 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -2 -7 -5 0 0 -3 -2 5 4 6 3 7 2 6 12 LAND (KM) 919 949 987 1005 962 899 912 964 1091 1291 1485 1587 1597 1595 1636 1648 1693 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.6 18.2 19.7 20.5 20.4 19.7 19.4 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.9 112.0 112.9 113.7 115.4 117.3 119.7 122.3 124.8 126.6 127.6 127.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 13 14 12 11 7 2 2 7 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 27 25 23 28 15 11 4 0 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 24. 32. 30. 31. 27. 24. 18. 15. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 20. 10. 1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 24. 33. 54. 65. 72. 75. 67. 63. 56. 52. 45. 42. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 109.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 08/22/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 14.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 9.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.87 8.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 4.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 51.2% 36.8% 0.0% 0.0% 50.8% 68.1% 0.0% Logistic: 19.8% 66.3% 45.5% 35.4% 12.7% 56.9% 49.1% 7.4% Bayesian: 15.3% 38.5% 44.8% 16.5% 4.1% 21.1% 7.6% 2.9% Consensus: 11.7% 52.0% 42.4% 17.3% 5.6% 42.9% 41.6% 3.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% 17.0% 12.0% SDCON: 7.8% 32.5% 23.2% 9.1% 3.3% 25.4% 29.3% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 08/22/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##