* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922026 08/22/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 30 39 49 66 80 89 91 90 85 81 76 73 71 69 68 V (KT) LAND 20 24 30 39 49 66 80 89 91 90 85 81 76 73 71 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 23 27 31 43 56 68 75 77 76 75 73 72 69 65 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 3 4 7 7 8 9 9 10 4 2 8 8 4 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -7 -2 -1 0 1 -2 2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 46 62 112 61 46 96 59 11 306 243 248 217 122 151 156 197 235 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.0 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 166 165 164 162 156 140 135 129 128 124 124 121 114 110 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 84 83 81 78 73 68 65 61 58 57 57 57 59 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 14 18 21 23 26 26 29 29 28 27 27 26 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 22 31 47 63 63 56 64 83 99 100 104 97 83 62 45 200 MB DIV 114 121 136 138 151 134 85 58 51 -12 -21 30 12 0 -2 6 7 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 -2 -3 0 0 -3 -6 4 0 5 3 3 1 7 11 LAND (KM) 897 913 926 955 987 914 876 873 965 1121 1313 1444 1477 1505 1550 1681 1763 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.7 17.2 19.0 20.2 20.4 20.0 19.6 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.7 110.7 111.7 112.6 114.2 115.8 117.8 120.1 122.6 124.7 126.0 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 13 12 11 8 4 2 5 9 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 33 26 25 26 22 16 7 5 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 22. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 14. 21. 24. 27. 26. 24. 21. 18. 16. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 7. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 19. 29. 46. 60. 69. 71. 70. 65. 61. 56. 53. 51. 49. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 108.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922026 INVEST 08/22/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.96 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.76 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.81 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 58.7% 33.8% 23.5% 8.5% 51.0% 60.9% 13.8% Bayesian: 2.8% 19.1% 17.2% 3.5% 0.6% 4.8% 2.7% 4.4% Consensus: 3.6% 25.9% 17.0% 9.0% 3.0% 18.6% 21.2% 6.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922026 INVEST 08/22/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##