* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/24/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 47 49 49 48 45 40 35 28 23 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 47 49 49 48 45 40 35 28 23 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 34 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 11 14 22 18 15 18 16 27 33 29 30 23 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 3 6 1 5 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 57 70 48 21 6 1 355 325 312 276 269 275 276 272 264 236 206 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.8 27.4 25.8 24.0 22.1 21.1 21.4 21.6 22.3 23.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 158 159 156 152 139 123 103 83 70 72 75 84 101 114 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.1 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -49.9 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 71 72 71 68 61 59 54 54 47 42 37 35 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 81 82 76 78 72 69 57 41 0 -21 -69 -81 -81 -78 -19 27 200 MB DIV 81 101 100 104 92 45 14 -10 2 -24 2 -26 -31 -44 -22 -21 26 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 3 0 8 0 -12 1 10 22 25 15 4 4 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1592 1530 1452 1360 1250 1023 891 863 899 984 1069 1045 1068 1127 1275 1484 1734 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.9 17.8 19.6 21.3 23.0 24.8 26.1 27.1 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 120.8 120.4 119.9 119.4 118.5 118.7 120.0 122.2 124.3 126.0 127.3 128.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 12 14 12 9 5 2 5 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 23 25 23 16 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 18. 15. 11. 6. 1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. 15. 10. 5. -2. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 121.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/24/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 22.7% 18.4% 15.2% 0.0% 19.5% 17.3% 15.3% Logistic: 2.9% 16.9% 5.9% 3.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 13.5% 8.2% 6.4% 0.5% 7.0% 6.0% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.6% 11.7% 6.1% 3.7% 0.7% 5.5% 4.5% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/24/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##