* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 49 52 53 53 52 50 46 42 38 33 27 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 49 52 53 53 52 50 46 42 38 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 42 42 40 36 31 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 8 9 15 21 16 15 17 23 26 28 25 21 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 0 6 4 2 3 4 2 5 4 2 1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 66 49 54 42 28 359 357 343 311 285 274 264 271 259 254 233 236 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 27.1 25.0 23.8 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.1 23.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 157 158 154 151 136 114 101 81 85 88 92 90 93 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -49.9 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 71 71 73 71 68 62 62 60 55 50 48 45 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 78 79 75 75 68 69 67 54 -4 -28 -75 -71 -75 -73 -63 200 MB DIV 59 74 85 82 81 85 17 12 -15 -5 4 -26 -36 -26 -13 -7 25 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 4 0 6 1 -2 -9 6 13 18 15 12 4 0 -9 LAND (KM) 1662 1623 1561 1483 1398 1171 980 887 886 965 1101 1203 1281 1415 1566 1686 1806 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.7 16.5 18.3 20.1 21.8 23.4 24.7 25.5 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 121.3 121.0 120.6 120.1 119.0 118.5 119.1 120.9 123.3 125.5 127.5 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 9 10 9 11 13 13 11 9 8 9 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 27 23 25 21 17 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 16. 20. 20. 19. 17. 13. 10. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 20. 16. 12. 8. 3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 121.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 23.6% 19.5% 15.9% 0.0% 21.9% 18.7% 16.2% Logistic: 2.3% 18.4% 5.6% 3.6% 1.1% 3.0% 1.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.7% 15.2% 8.8% 6.6% 0.4% 8.4% 6.9% 5.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 14.1% 6.9% 3.8% 0.7% 6.2% 5.4% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##