* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 40 43 45 48 49 49 48 46 42 36 30 22 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 40 43 45 48 49 49 48 46 42 36 30 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 38 39 37 35 32 28 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 17 18 21 17 22 16 18 17 29 34 35 33 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 1 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 2 2 3 3 4 3 6 SHEAR DIR 68 65 61 66 61 37 343 337 326 310 276 256 257 256 258 242 229 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.4 26.8 24.4 21.9 22.0 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 160 161 160 159 158 149 134 109 82 82 77 77 78 79 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.8 -49.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 71 71 72 72 74 68 65 61 62 57 49 44 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 69 70 72 68 74 79 87 84 76 29 -7 -41 -76 -85 -85 -67 200 MB DIV 96 62 53 63 51 78 41 19 -10 -12 -1 -2 -27 -10 -35 -11 4 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 2 1 0 3 -6 -6 -1 7 18 22 17 10 2 -6 LAND (KM) 1727 1695 1639 1569 1483 1251 1012 888 857 894 1003 1166 1211 1284 1343 1395 1409 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 15.2 17.0 18.6 20.3 22.1 24.0 25.5 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 121.3 121.1 120.7 120.2 118.7 117.4 117.5 118.9 121.3 124.1 126.8 129.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 9 11 9 9 12 16 15 13 10 7 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 29 30 29 28 21 17 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 19. 15. 11. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. 12. 6. -0. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 121.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -20.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.06 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 19.3% 16.1% 13.1% 0.0% 19.1% 16.6% 15.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 9.0% 5.9% 4.6% 0.1% 6.6% 5.7% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 7.5% 3.9% 2.8% 0.5% 5.3% 5.8% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##