* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 45 50 52 54 54 55 55 53 50 44 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 45 50 52 54 54 55 55 53 50 44 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 36 36 35 34 32 29 24 20 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 15 16 15 17 16 19 15 16 16 11 16 27 38 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 0 1 1 2 7 6 0 0 1 5 6 4 6 6 SHEAR DIR 73 62 61 54 52 56 42 359 352 357 329 337 296 259 252 258 251 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.0 27.7 26.2 23.8 21.3 21.9 21.3 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 159 159 162 160 160 157 155 142 127 102 75 81 73 72 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 74 71 73 73 73 74 72 64 57 56 54 54 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 79 82 75 68 64 72 98 100 96 76 29 0 -51 -89 -107 -105 200 MB DIV 105 109 107 90 77 62 65 39 11 4 -10 -8 -4 -19 8 4 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 -3 -1 0 -5 14 23 32 32 18 LAND (KM) 1811 1809 1792 1761 1697 1525 1315 1090 968 908 924 934 1035 1101 1119 1137 1104 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.8 13.0 14.4 16.0 17.5 19.0 20.6 22.5 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 121.5 121.5 121.3 121.0 120.0 118.7 117.4 117.3 118.3 120.0 122.2 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 4 6 9 10 8 8 10 13 14 15 12 10 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 36 37 35 34 29 31 16 15 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 32. 30. 27. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 20. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 30. 28. 25. 19. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 121.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.25 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.3% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 8.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 1.3% 6.8% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 0.4% 11.2% 7.1% 0.3% 0.1% 7.4% 8.6% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 13.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0% 17.0% 37.0% SDCON: 0.2% 12.1% 6.0% 0.6% 0.5% 9.7% 12.8% 19.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##