* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 41 49 55 60 61 63 65 68 71 72 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 41 49 55 60 61 63 65 68 71 72 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 46 48 48 48 50 53 56 58 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 14 12 14 17 21 20 16 6 10 17 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 4 5 7 7 5 -1 3 2 0 2 15 SHEAR DIR 60 92 88 85 83 66 68 83 58 66 75 91 122 98 97 97 68 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 156 155 155 156 157 159 159 158 158 158 159 158 159 161 162 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 74 73 71 70 70 70 71 77 81 85 86 85 82 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 28 21 27 19 18 16 5 24 21 18 0 37 79 84 110 101 200 MB DIV 55 41 42 58 62 91 58 29 28 37 31 20 96 121 109 129 85 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 -4 -1 3 2 4 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 1946 2029 2083 2112 2134 2109 2047 1948 1818 1678 1548 1505 1538 1625 1716 1770 1732 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 12.9 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.8 124.4 124.7 124.9 124.8 124.4 123.7 122.5 121.3 120.2 119.6 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 8 5 3 1 2 4 5 7 7 4 2 3 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 23 22 22 22 23 24 29 30 33 34 38 37 38 34 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 382 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 41. 44. 46. 48. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -10. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 16. 24. 30. 35. 36. 38. 40. 43. 46. 47. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 122.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 42.1% 12.7% 7.5% 4.4% 6.1% 7.4% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 11.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 0.3% Consensus: 2.9% 25.2% 10.5% 2.7% 1.7% 9.0% 9.2% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 14.1% 5.7% 1.3% 0.8% 4.5% 4.6% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##