* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 48 56 60 60 62 63 66 67 68 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 48 56 60 60 62 63 66 67 68 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 43 47 49 49 49 50 52 53 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 11 12 15 15 12 18 20 12 11 9 11 8 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 1 2 6 8 7 0 0 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 77 82 87 84 70 67 71 45 38 36 42 15 351 324 324 313 289 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.5 27.7 26.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 157 156 158 159 160 160 160 157 156 156 150 143 126 119 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 84 79 76 76 73 70 68 68 73 77 76 72 67 61 56 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 48 49 40 44 33 59 67 93 109 78 35 28 34 13 -13 -16 200 MB DIV 83 55 46 69 80 80 71 43 53 53 32 -1 6 5 -1 0 -14 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 0 -6 0 0 -3 2 4 6 13 LAND (KM) 1827 1896 1932 1955 1963 1915 1798 1649 1463 1283 1166 1137 1158 1230 1320 1420 1560 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.5 11.2 12.2 13.4 14.7 15.8 16.5 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.9 122.4 122.6 122.7 122.5 121.7 120.8 119.6 118.6 118.2 118.5 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 3 2 1 4 6 8 8 8 4 5 8 11 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 26 25 25 25 31 33 32 29 28 22 20 9 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 16. 23. 29. 34. 36. 39. 41. 43. 44. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 31. 35. 35. 37. 38. 41. 42. 43. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 120.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.9% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 31.4% 7.4% 4.1% 2.7% 4.9% 10.7% 14.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% Consensus: 1.1% 19.1% 8.2% 1.4% 1.0% 8.5% 10.0% 5.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 29.0% 16.0% 5.0% 4.0% 15.0% 9.0% 9.0% SDCON: 1.5% 24.0% 12.1% 3.2% 2.5% 11.7% 9.5% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##