* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 49 54 56 55 54 54 54 53 49 43 34 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 49 54 56 55 54 54 54 53 49 43 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 43 43 41 39 37 34 30 24 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 18 24 19 14 18 22 22 21 28 22 17 10 20 35 49 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -1 -3 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 2 7 7 10 2 0 SHEAR DIR 14 68 68 71 58 48 43 21 350 5 14 359 330 249 224 214 210 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.1 27.4 25.0 22.4 21.3 21.0 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 156 157 157 161 162 162 162 156 140 117 89 77 72 65 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.6 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.1 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.1 -49.7 -49.3 -49.5 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 76 75 72 72 77 76 77 73 62 58 58 57 56 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 62 79 90 87 57 53 88 82 102 98 65 7 -12 -47 -75 200 MB DIV 97 83 71 88 135 122 101 58 73 36 20 32 20 4 24 26 35 700-850 TADV -7 -1 0 0 0 2 7 10 7 -4 -7 -9 -8 38 45 28 1 LAND (KM) 1735 1770 1795 1799 1781 1679 1476 1212 932 759 682 712 769 993 996 998 869 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.9 12.3 14.1 16.3 18.2 20.0 21.8 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.6 120.0 120.2 120.2 119.6 118.4 116.8 115.5 115.3 116.2 118.3 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 2 3 7 11 13 11 9 11 16 20 20 16 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 32 32 32 38 37 29 31 25 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. 34. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -16. -13. -10. -9. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 24. 29. 31. 30. 29. 29. 29. 28. 24. 18. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 119.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.6% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.2% 19.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 32.3% 7.8% 4.7% 1.9% 6.6% 9.0% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 14.0% 7.5% 1.8% 0.2% 3.4% 0.4% 2.1% Consensus: 1.7% 23.0% 10.9% 2.2% 0.7% 10.4% 9.7% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 22.0% 11.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.0% 16.0% 35.0% SDCON: 1.3% 22.5% 10.9% 2.1% 0.8% 12.2% 12.8% 19.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##