* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/22/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 41 47 53 57 57 57 57 55 50 44 35 25 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 41 47 53 57 57 57 57 55 50 44 35 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 40 38 36 32 28 24 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 10 18 21 17 15 22 18 22 19 20 23 38 48 51 53 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 2 -1 0 0 5 3 0 3 3 5 2 2 2 7 0 SHEAR DIR 103 52 55 62 56 41 32 5 341 328 293 247 230 230 237 239 245 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.0 26.3 23.8 21.8 21.8 22.1 21.7 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 156 157 160 162 163 162 146 129 103 82 81 83 78 76 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.6 -51.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 80 78 73 78 78 73 67 64 58 58 54 56 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 69 76 73 75 73 55 40 60 67 61 25 14 7 14 14 -13 200 MB DIV 102 113 115 100 127 112 75 38 40 46 26 10 12 15 26 6 14 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 5 11 -6 -21 -4 22 30 33 27 22 21 LAND (KM) 1622 1623 1635 1628 1605 1503 1286 989 777 641 670 870 1105 1279 1466 1564 1570 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.8 13.5 16.1 18.7 21.3 23.6 25.3 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.7 118.1 118.3 118.4 118.1 117.1 116.1 116.0 117.1 119.8 123.3 126.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 7 13 13 13 15 18 18 17 15 12 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 36 37 37 39 36 29 32 25 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. 31. 28. 25. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -12. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 22. 28. 32. 32. 32. 32. 30. 25. 19. 10. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 117.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/22/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 27.8% 8.0% 4.7% 0.9% 6.5% 6.4% 4.7% Bayesian: 4.1% 8.2% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 2.0% 3.4% 0.9% Consensus: 3.2% 19.5% 9.9% 1.8% 0.3% 10.0% 9.7% 1.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 20.0% 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 7.0% 14.0% SDCON: 2.1% 19.7% 9.9% 1.9% 0.6% 6.5% 8.3% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/22/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##