* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/22/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 52 54 54 54 52 49 44 36 31 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 52 54 54 54 52 49 44 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 27 27 26 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 20 25 17 27 22 19 14 17 21 30 41 43 42 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 -1 0 2 4 -1 0 1 1 2 1 0 5 9 SHEAR DIR 121 117 31 63 62 57 36 12 340 325 298 250 230 222 229 231 241 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.3 26.7 24.1 22.7 23.4 23.0 23.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 158 155 154 156 161 163 159 149 134 107 92 98 93 101 108 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.2 -49.6 -49.7 -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 83 80 77 77 81 75 67 62 59 59 57 56 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 59 77 80 70 61 42 54 41 62 41 46 27 59 71 76 59 200 MB DIV 96 101 109 108 100 143 74 75 31 40 -13 19 10 24 15 13 11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 0 0 -2 3 12 4 -7 -15 18 27 28 9 3 -7 LAND (KM) 1662 1685 1719 1734 1731 1641 1464 1181 946 816 857 1062 1317 1524 1755 1856 1656 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.9 12.3 14.9 17.7 20.3 22.4 24.1 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.3 118.9 119.3 119.4 119.0 118.2 117.4 117.2 118.4 121.1 124.8 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 3 1 6 11 15 13 15 18 20 17 15 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 37 35 34 33 41 35 31 16 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 26. 32. 36. 38. 39. 37. 36. 34. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -10. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 27. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. 29. 24. 16. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 117.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/22/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.46 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 17.0% 4.4% 2.1% 0.5% 2.6% 5.4% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.4% 6.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 1.8% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/22/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##