* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/22/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 29 35 44 59 71 85 90 93 91 87 82 76 73 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 29 35 44 59 71 85 90 93 91 87 82 76 73 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 26 31 37 42 47 52 55 53 47 41 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 13 14 21 17 19 9 6 6 8 15 22 20 13 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -1 3 4 -1 -3 -4 -1 1 0 0 3 1 3 4 6 SHEAR DIR 100 82 65 36 18 24 4 354 347 263 242 248 240 233 245 265 281 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 28.8 26.9 24.4 22.4 23.6 24.2 25.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 159 158 159 162 164 165 155 136 111 89 100 105 118 127 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.6 -50.6 -51.2 -50.2 -50.6 -49.9 -49.9 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 80 84 84 84 83 81 80 80 80 70 64 58 56 56 52 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 11 16 19 25 27 30 32 34 33 33 32 29 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 39 51 55 68 75 73 76 66 46 59 71 26 59 82 103 122 138 200 MB DIV 55 72 75 88 125 161 168 81 60 40 46 16 -2 14 21 6 -6 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -6 -7 -6 -3 -1 1 -2 0 5 7 8 8 0 3 LAND (KM) 1601 1632 1658 1682 1691 1657 1503 1231 891 697 701 912 1260 1515 1788 2003 1902 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.7 11.0 13.3 16.7 19.9 22.5 24.2 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.1 116.6 117.1 117.3 117.2 116.7 115.8 115.4 116.3 119.1 123.2 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 3 2 4 10 15 16 17 20 21 19 15 12 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 27 25 28 25 24 32 27 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 17. 26. 33. 38. 40. 41. 40. 39. 37. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 18. 25. 33. 35. 36. 33. 30. 26. 21. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 15. 24. 39. 51. 65. 70. 73. 71. 67. 63. 57. 53. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 115.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/22/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 9.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.4% 2.7% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 5.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/22/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##