* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 29 36 42 48 51 51 50 49 47 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 29 36 42 48 51 51 50 49 47 45 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 23 22 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 17 14 14 23 17 19 19 12 17 15 20 23 15 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 -1 -1 1 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 3 2 2 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 116 96 86 65 73 47 19 5 351 297 268 257 234 230 213 134 88 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.0 27.2 26.1 24.6 24.9 25.7 26.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 159 160 160 161 163 164 156 138 127 111 113 120 125 131 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -49.9 -49.8 -49.4 -49.7 -49.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 1 1 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 82 86 85 84 83 80 80 80 73 66 58 55 54 51 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 53 57 69 91 72 69 56 65 68 64 51 78 99 126 127 200 MB DIV 28 59 85 99 124 190 198 117 62 47 38 14 10 -5 -23 0 20 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 -3 8 12 -4 10 5 19 7 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1526 1524 1554 1593 1616 1584 1463 1248 1037 933 954 1082 1352 1662 1919 2102 2190 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 10.0 11.2 13.4 16.2 18.7 20.7 22.1 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.1 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.9 118.3 120.6 123.7 127.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 4 3 3 8 13 15 14 16 16 16 13 10 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 27 30 29 24 30 35 15 5 1 0 0 0 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 25. 33. 37. 39. 41. 42. 41. 41. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 22. 28. 31. 31. 30. 29. 27. 25. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.2 114.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.39 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 3.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##