* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 30 43 54 70 82 92 95 92 86 82 80 79 77 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 30 43 54 70 82 92 95 92 86 82 80 79 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 23 28 35 43 51 59 65 64 59 54 53 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 9 11 15 17 14 15 9 2 6 9 5 7 6 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 5 2 0 4 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 171 152 105 81 66 20 359 343 311 178 184 172 174 177 231 317 353 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.1 27.3 26.3 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 161 160 159 157 159 164 164 158 139 129 112 116 119 121 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 -50.1 -50.8 -49.6 -50.2 -49.2 -49.6 -49.1 -49.4 -49.3 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 80 83 88 88 85 84 81 84 80 70 61 56 54 53 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 18 21 28 32 37 39 39 36 35 34 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 40 49 54 90 74 70 59 76 77 76 69 97 116 130 115 200 MB DIV 39 31 39 61 72 136 194 194 81 92 44 38 2 5 -15 11 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -1 2 0 -1 3 0 4 3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1579 1609 1663 1697 1721 1742 1677 1491 1224 1041 1019 1134 1399 1700 1922 2040 2073 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.8 11.5 14.4 17.6 20.1 21.7 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.6 116.3 117.0 117.5 118.1 117.8 117.4 117.4 118.5 120.8 124.0 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 6 4 1 6 12 16 17 17 17 15 12 8 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 25 33 35 37 33 31 16 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 17. 27. 34. 40. 42. 44. 45. 44. 43. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 27. 35. 42. 43. 40. 33. 29. 25. 20. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 10. 23. 34. 50. 62. 72. 75. 72. 66. 62. 60. 59. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 115.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -0.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 12.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 11.7% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 3.1% 0.3% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 4.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 16.0% SDCON: 0.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##