* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 30 39 51 67 83 92 101 102 97 91 87 86 83 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 30 39 51 67 83 92 101 102 97 91 87 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 36 45 53 60 67 69 67 62 60 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 9 12 17 20 17 12 7 9 6 4 4 7 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 10 5 2 4 2 0 0 1 -2 0 1 -3 -3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 134 92 101 80 53 38 8 336 320 306 183 168 105 324 239 312 2 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.0 26.6 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 157 154 158 162 163 161 147 132 116 118 121 127 128 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.2 -49.7 -50.0 -49.5 -49.7 -49.6 -49.8 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 4 2 2 1 2 3 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 82 86 86 84 83 83 82 72 64 56 55 52 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 13 20 26 31 34 40 42 41 39 36 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 37 46 55 65 81 70 69 77 94 96 95 109 133 147 148 200 MB DIV 78 41 30 39 61 106 182 227 126 70 72 52 -2 -9 -5 -2 7 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -7 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 2 0 -1 0 2 2 6 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1622 1689 1742 1796 1827 1845 1796 1612 1332 1089 1007 1101 1338 1638 1876 1993 1997 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.6 10.2 13.0 16.4 19.2 21.1 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.7 116.3 116.9 117.4 118.0 117.8 117.3 117.1 117.8 119.8 123.0 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 1 5 12 15 18 17 18 15 13 9 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 24 29 31 34 32 32 31 26 9 3 0 0 0 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 19. 29. 37. 42. 45. 47. 48. 47. 46. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 23. 33. 37. 43. 42. 37. 31. 26. 22. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 10. 19. 31. 47. 63. 72. 81. 82. 77. 71. 67. 66. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.4 114.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 30.5% 8.9% 5.5% 0.2% 6.7% 2.6% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 1.1% 10.3% 3.0% 1.8% 0.1% 2.2% 0.9% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.5% 7.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##