* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912026 08/21/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 32 44 56 70 86 96 105 107 107 101 98 94 92 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 32 44 56 70 86 96 105 107 107 101 98 94 92 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 29 37 50 62 72 81 86 85 77 72 71 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 8 9 15 17 18 13 12 4 4 0 7 3 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 12 9 4 1 2 1 0 -2 -4 -4 1 -3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 180 140 102 118 94 48 19 359 322 322 318 195 71 288 292 52 102 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.9 27.0 25.5 25.1 25.9 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 157 158 157 157 159 163 163 157 137 122 117 124 136 138 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -50.2 -51.0 -49.7 -50.3 -49.5 -49.6 -49.2 -50.1 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 3 1 1 2 4 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 77 82 88 85 84 82 84 76 66 60 54 51 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 12 15 21 28 32 37 38 40 38 39 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 32 39 49 60 77 78 78 56 78 75 79 98 138 167 158 200 MB DIV 100 82 43 25 39 74 169 186 200 81 62 78 25 -2 -25 -9 32 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -6 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 1 LAND (KM) 1559 1632 1683 1736 1782 1852 1831 1711 1449 1163 975 1003 1205 1556 1914 2136 2131 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.2 9.2 11.6 14.8 18.2 20.6 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.8 115.4 116.0 116.5 117.5 117.7 117.3 116.8 117.0 118.3 121.2 125.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 8 15 18 18 19 19 18 14 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 29 27 26 32 32 25 30 29 13 5 0 0 0 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 20. 29. 37. 43. 47. 49. 50. 50. 49. 50. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 6. 15. 26. 31. 37. 36. 35. 30. 28. 23. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 12. 24. 36. 50. 66. 76. 85. 87. 87. 81. 78. 74. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.4 114.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912026 INVEST 08/21/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.51 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.7% 74.8% 47.0% 37.7% 2.3% 36.4% 16.3% 29.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 7.0% 12.4% 1.2% Consensus: 7.6% 27.2% 16.5% 12.8% 0.8% 14.4% 9.6% 10.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912026 INVEST 08/21/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##