* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 09/26/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 60 67 77 80 85 84 83 80 75 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 60 67 77 80 85 84 83 80 75 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 43 47 52 59 65 70 72 69 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 16 17 17 15 14 12 13 10 13 16 21 22 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 1 9 9 5 2 2 3 1 3 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 44 52 58 54 57 67 52 48 41 76 86 77 60 58 60 63 44 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.7 30.7 30.7 30.9 31.0 30.9 29.9 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 155 158 163 163 164 162 170 170 169 169 169 162 153 148 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -50.4 -50.0 -49.7 -49.2 -49.2 -49.2 -49.4 -49.4 -49.8 -49.7 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 82 83 86 86 82 84 80 78 73 69 62 55 51 53 54 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 17 21 24 24 27 28 32 34 35 37 35 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 30 31 35 50 56 57 60 87 84 123 103 111 108 95 96 200 MB DIV 59 67 97 65 63 92 100 74 68 76 76 71 28 8 -6 3 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -4 -3 -1 0 2 0 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 505 466 431 428 419 370 350 360 325 332 360 339 251 231 287 358 392 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 8 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 12 13 10 17 33 25 32 31 34 21 19 16 13 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. 41. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 19. 21. 26. 26. 25. 24. 20. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 35. 42. 52. 55. 60. 59. 58. 55. 50. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 99.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 09/26/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 25.3% 5.4% 3.2% 1.2% 8.0% 15.8% 15.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% Consensus: 0.7% 15.6% 6.4% 1.1% 0.4% 8.4% 10.9% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0.8% 11.8% 4.7% 1.0% 0.2% 6.2% 8.9% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 09/26/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##