* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 09/26/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 39 45 55 64 73 76 79 82 83 86 90 85 83 79 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 39 45 55 64 73 76 79 82 83 86 90 85 83 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 53 55 56 58 64 75 84 82 76 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 17 12 15 16 15 16 17 15 15 13 17 19 28 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 2 5 5 9 9 4 5 2 0 5 7 3 6 SHEAR DIR 52 47 48 31 55 43 38 18 25 37 76 79 88 55 58 63 87 SST (C) 30.1 29.7 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.8 29.7 30.0 31.2 31.1 31.0 29.5 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 160 155 153 150 148 149 155 163 162 165 172 171 172 161 156 151 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 -49.2 -49.2 -49.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 8 7 9 7 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 84 86 84 85 85 85 78 80 75 70 60 52 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 16 19 22 26 26 26 28 29 34 41 39 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 31 26 25 16 8 23 32 43 71 65 103 120 130 140 139 200 MB DIV 87 79 70 94 111 95 120 139 101 75 52 75 86 70 -5 -5 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 498 513 524 536 547 580 578 531 452 349 228 191 270 350 461 721 952 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.2 11.4 12.1 13.3 15.0 16.7 18.2 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.4 98.9 99.3 99.6 99.9 100.3 101.0 102.1 103.4 104.7 106.3 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 3 2 1 3 7 9 11 10 10 10 13 14 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 25 10 8 5 0 0 0 28 36 29 31 40 23 15 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 27. 31. 27. 25. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 20. 30. 39. 48. 51. 54. 57. 58. 61. 65. 60. 58. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 97.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 09/26/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.46 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 40.2% 13.2% 8.0% 2.2% 17.5% 35.0% 34.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 18.5% 8.0% 2.5% 0.9% 5.3% 5.3% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 26.8% 12.4% 3.5% 1.1% 13.6% 19.1% 11.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 09/26/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##