* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 09/26/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 47 59 68 76 80 82 83 85 85 85 82 80 79 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 47 59 68 76 80 82 83 85 85 85 82 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 46 54 61 65 65 67 71 79 86 87 82 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 14 13 15 12 15 13 17 19 18 16 12 21 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 1 2 6 7 11 6 1 -1 2 4 8 7 5 SHEAR DIR 89 66 45 43 45 48 32 28 17 27 56 73 101 72 66 66 80 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.3 31.2 31.0 31.0 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 161 156 153 151 149 151 159 162 163 168 171 172 173 159 158 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -52.1 -51.0 -51.3 -50.4 -50.6 -49.7 -49.9 -49.0 -49.5 -49.0 -49.7 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 9 7 10 6 7 4 4 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 83 85 85 84 86 86 83 82 77 71 60 55 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 14 15 20 22 25 27 28 29 32 35 38 38 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 43 35 30 23 20 19 36 47 74 83 90 108 108 111 141 200 MB DIV 104 97 80 85 100 109 124 101 124 76 41 54 117 82 57 26 17 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -4 -3 -1 2 2 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 485 498 518 529 537 560 590 589 513 400 277 191 152 262 320 491 740 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.4 12.4 14.0 15.8 17.4 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.6 98.2 98.7 99.0 99.4 99.9 100.5 101.4 102.5 103.7 105.0 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 2 2 2 5 8 10 11 10 9 11 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 41 33 12 9 5 0 0 4 33 33 23 38 37 20 16 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 44. 46. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 19. 24. 26. 26. 28. 29. 29. 26. 24. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 34. 43. 51. 55. 57. 58. 60. 60. 60. 57. 55. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 96.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 09/26/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.25 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 25.9% 8.0% 4.5% 1.4% 14.1% 30.8% 31.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 21.5% 12.5% 4.9% 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 4.0% Consensus: 1.6% 22.9% 12.6% 3.1% 0.6% 11.8% 16.5% 11.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 09/26/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##