* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 08/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 60 64 63 61 58 58 57 59 59 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 60 64 63 61 58 58 57 59 59 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 45 49 51 49 45 41 41 42 43 42 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 5 6 10 7 8 9 14 14 9 14 19 27 31 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 7 7 5 7 6 5 -2 -1 -2 1 4 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 86 84 106 135 170 188 200 223 235 259 251 255 256 261 273 293 288 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.7 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.8 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 159 159 155 149 142 145 140 137 142 139 136 142 144 142 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 72 67 67 65 61 62 57 53 48 46 46 50 54 57 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 16 18 19 17 17 14 14 13 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 38 48 66 79 88 94 94 75 60 51 41 27 22 16 25 22 27 200 MB DIV 146 110 114 104 55 43 34 12 23 -19 -21 0 21 0 15 -11 -20 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 -5 0 4 6 12 1 -3 0 -5 -2 -7 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 1752 1645 1540 1428 1316 1124 895 628 390 154 164 257 275 424 602 782 926 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 11 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 12 20 29 32 20 11 24 11 11 20 15 11 22 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 16. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33. 33. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 34. 33. 31. 28. 28. 27. 29. 29. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 141.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 08/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.68 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -25.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.13 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 22.7% 18.5% 14.9% 0.0% 21.3% 19.4% 15.9% Logistic: 1.7% 14.6% 5.4% 3.2% 0.5% 3.3% 2.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 12.9% 8.2% 6.1% 0.2% 8.2% 7.2% 6.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0% SDCON: 2.5% 10.9% 6.6% 3.5% 0.6% 5.6% 5.1% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 08/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##