* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 08/20/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 52 63 71 72 70 67 60 58 59 61 63 63 63 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 52 63 71 72 70 67 60 58 59 61 63 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 37 42 52 61 63 60 53 47 44 45 47 48 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 10 5 6 10 11 15 17 13 6 7 12 17 19 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -2 2 3 2 5 6 5 2 0 0 5 9 2 3 SHEAR DIR 88 97 101 115 134 178 215 254 271 263 255 244 244 266 282 288 307 SST (C) 29.7 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.7 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 28.0 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 161 160 159 158 152 144 145 142 140 141 145 142 144 146 144 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 75 72 66 67 63 62 59 54 53 50 49 48 51 52 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 15 18 19 20 20 20 17 15 15 16 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 48 59 75 88 93 88 62 54 53 41 32 32 35 31 37 200 MB DIV 171 153 120 107 92 51 51 39 19 4 -18 -19 2 0 2 -38 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 0 -2 4 1 15 16 7 5 2 -1 2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1883 1750 1618 1505 1392 1176 956 697 437 235 127 273 292 407 615 791 949 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 10 16 22 33 25 14 24 14 14 21 22 17 27 29 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 36. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 14. 14. 9. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 33. 41. 42. 40. 37. 30. 28. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 140.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 08/20/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.79 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.43 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 39.9% 26.3% 18.4% 0.0% 27.1% 44.7% 19.6% Logistic: 2.5% 28.0% 12.7% 8.2% 3.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% Consensus: 4.7% 23.5% 13.7% 9.0% 1.1% 11.3% 16.6% 7.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 23.0% 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% 10.0% 21.0% SDCON: 3.3% 23.2% 11.8% 5.0% 1.0% 9.6% 13.3% 14.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 08/20/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##