* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 08/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 42 50 59 74 83 87 82 74 69 65 63 63 63 61 61 V (KT) LAND 30 36 42 50 59 74 83 87 82 74 69 65 63 63 63 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 47 63 80 90 86 76 65 59 57 57 58 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 8 10 8 8 8 8 16 14 13 10 16 16 24 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 3 0 7 5 5 1 -2 -2 0 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 285 55 87 76 97 125 173 204 258 264 263 255 254 255 244 250 273 SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.6 27.9 28.2 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 160 160 160 160 155 151 144 147 141 142 144 143 141 145 146 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 80 79 75 71 67 65 62 60 55 53 51 48 48 50 54 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 16 17 19 19 17 15 14 13 13 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 40 47 59 85 101 100 81 60 55 44 30 24 23 22 18 200 MB DIV 159 164 166 123 122 90 59 40 32 15 -28 -4 -23 13 0 -17 -22 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 1 3 1 2 5 8 12 3 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 2032 1898 1765 1636 1509 1315 1092 843 597 371 176 206 329 358 518 684 843 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 9 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 16 10 15 27 25 23 17 29 13 19 24 21 18 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 19. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 39. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 13. 9. 7. 5. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 7. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 29. 44. 53. 57. 52. 44. 39. 35. 33. 33. 33. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 138.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 08/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 16.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 11.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -11.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.88 10.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 7.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -68.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.70 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 60% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 72% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 69.3% 48.5% 38.5% 0.0% 59.9% 72.3% 51.9% Logistic: 46.9% 84.0% 70.3% 64.7% 38.8% 49.2% 18.0% 10.9% Bayesian: 7.1% 37.0% 35.9% 16.7% 1.2% 26.5% 18.4% 2.4% Consensus: 22.8% 63.4% 51.6% 40.0% 13.3% 45.2% 36.2% 21.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 29.0% 15.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 9.0% 6.0% SDCON: 13.4% 46.2% 33.3% 21.0% 7.6% 25.1% 22.6% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 08/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##