* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 08/19/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 49 58 75 88 90 92 84 78 71 65 63 62 59 56 V (KT) LAND 30 35 42 49 58 75 88 90 92 84 78 71 65 63 62 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 47 62 80 91 89 76 62 52 47 45 45 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 4 8 11 7 10 10 18 21 18 16 18 19 28 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 9 9 9 4 -3 1 0 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 271 282 25 62 68 121 170 202 215 219 225 240 253 251 241 250 250 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.8 27.9 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.0 27.5 27.4 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 165 160 158 160 157 154 145 137 137 137 134 139 137 133 132 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -50.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 79 79 75 73 69 66 62 62 59 55 49 51 49 49 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 16 19 24 23 27 24 23 20 17 16 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 21 35 46 56 64 80 99 99 74 61 46 40 43 42 44 43 27 200 MB DIV 166 180 197 183 164 173 118 59 44 10 -12 -17 -20 1 13 15 4 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 0 2 0 4 9 20 12 4 8 -1 -1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 2229 2121 2008 1890 1784 1573 1359 1100 826 526 241 32 45 152 173 297 413 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.4 11.6 13.0 14.6 16.2 17.9 19.3 20.1 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.9 138.0 139.1 140.2 141.1 142.6 144.0 145.8 147.8 150.1 152.5 154.9 157.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 10 10 13 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 20 16 14 11 27 30 11 9 9 9 9 17 12 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 58.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 34. 36. 37. 37. 37. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 16. 23. 20. 18. 12. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 15. 8. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 28. 45. 58. 60. 62. 54. 48. 41. 35. 33. 32. 29. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 136.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 08/19/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 14.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 10.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -10.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 178.0 -33.0 to 170.5 1.00 10.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 4.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.31 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 52.2% 42.1% 33.6% 0.0% 51.5% 70.0% 53.1% Logistic: 7.8% 38.2% 22.1% 14.5% 2.9% 31.8% 64.3% 12.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 12.1% 15.9% 3.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 9.7% Consensus: 7.2% 34.2% 26.7% 17.3% 1.0% 28.0% 44.9% 25.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 17.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 14.0% 27.0% SDCON: 6.6% 25.6% 16.8% 9.1% 1.0% 17.0% 29.4% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 08/19/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##