* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902026 08/19/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 43 52 69 84 90 90 89 80 76 70 63 59 53 50 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 43 52 69 84 90 90 89 80 76 70 63 59 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 33 37 50 66 78 83 78 67 56 48 41 38 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 5 7 13 9 6 12 17 22 26 22 27 31 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -1 0 -2 5 6 11 6 8 1 1 0 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 103 351 350 14 51 63 115 196 199 218 227 247 265 267 258 259 248 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 160 158 157 156 154 150 145 135 131 132 129 127 127 127 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.8 -52.4 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 85 84 81 79 77 71 67 63 64 60 57 54 54 55 54 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 14 16 20 21 21 23 20 20 19 15 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 7 17 28 40 51 67 80 84 84 57 46 31 34 34 40 24 4 200 MB DIV 132 152 148 168 191 190 191 74 31 16 28 2 -2 -25 0 -12 -14 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 2 1 1 1 10 14 12 5 5 -3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 2336 2234 2128 2025 1932 1731 1564 1380 1144 881 586 349 215 101 59 31 158 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 10.4 11.6 13.1 15.0 16.7 18.6 20.1 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 137.1 138.2 139.2 140.1 141.7 142.7 143.7 145.1 147.0 149.3 151.5 153.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 11 12 15 13 12 10 11 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 19 16 12 10 23 28 12 8 7 6 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 11. 20. 28. 34. 38. 40. 41. 41. 41. 40. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 16. 19. 21. 16. 15. 12. 7. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 13. 7. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 18. 27. 44. 59. 65. 65. 64. 55. 51. 45. 38. 34. 28. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 136.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902026 INVEST 08/19/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 13.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.83 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -9.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 158.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.94 8.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 3.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.31 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 46.4% 35.4% 0.0% 0.0% 41.7% 65.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 50.6% 29.0% 20.2% 5.2% 36.8% 76.4% 25.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 23.9% Consensus: 2.6% 34.5% 22.1% 7.1% 1.8% 26.4% 47.3% 16.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902026 INVEST 08/19/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##