* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192026 09/29/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 27 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 27 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 26 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 21 19 20 18 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 0 0 5 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 123 113 104 88 94 76 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.6 27.1 27.8 27.7 28.2 28.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 134 141 140 146 146 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 61 59 60 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 93 82 63 49 41 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 12 22 22 19 66 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 1 0 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2253 2183 2114 2045 1978 1834 1683 1547 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.2 130.3 129.4 128.6 127.8 126.0 124.3 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 9 5 14 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 131.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192026 NINETEEN 09/29/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.07 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 15.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192026 NINETEEN 09/29/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##