* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192026 09/29/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 27 26 23 23 26 28 29 30 31 33 35 38 41 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 26 23 23 26 28 29 30 31 33 35 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 24 21 19 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 19 18 18 17 14 16 17 27 26 29 40 40 33 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 3 0 0 8 9 8 9 6 6 12 5 5 1 6 5 SHEAR DIR 129 134 133 119 107 96 82 79 80 84 107 101 84 73 81 94 90 SST (C) 28.0 26.8 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 132 127 132 137 136 140 141 145 155 157 159 162 166 163 161 160 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 71 67 65 64 64 62 57 56 53 51 49 54 57 60 68 73 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 94 94 83 69 54 39 17 17 18 3 31 105 102 43 9 0 200 MB DIV 6 1 3 11 18 47 56 50 30 6 -10 5 29 81 71 45 39 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -4 -1 0 0 4 2 3 2 0 -1 3 9 5 7 11 LAND (KM) 2308 2214 2129 2059 1998 1918 1868 1818 1785 1746 1707 1605 1380 971 619 502 486 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.5 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.1 131.0 130.0 129.1 128.3 127.2 126.5 125.9 125.2 124.2 122.6 120.3 116.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 4 3 3 4 7 10 15 21 23 12 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 8 2 0 3 6 7 10 13 15 18 17 15 16 28 28 28 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 21. 25. 29. 33. 37. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -25. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 132.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192026 NINETEEN 09/29/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.12 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 9.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192026 NINETEEN 09/29/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##