* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/29/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 65 66 69 72 76 74 75 75 75 75 78 81 83 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 64 65 66 69 72 76 74 75 75 75 75 78 81 83 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 73 77 80 80 78 75 72 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 16 14 11 14 15 10 7 3 5 3 2 5 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 2 3 5 1 -2 -5 -4 -3 0 0 4 2 6 4 SHEAR DIR 38 50 52 49 53 82 41 69 87 109 120 90 115 2 32 88 82 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 28.9 29.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.0 29.7 28.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 27.3 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 153 158 166 163 162 164 162 159 147 135 132 128 135 134 135 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.4 -49.6 -49.7 -49.6 -49.7 -49.8 -49.7 -49.4 -49.3 -48.9 -48.9 -49.0 -49.0 -49.6 -49.5 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 76 73 63 64 62 62 62 63 61 58 59 56 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 26 25 26 27 31 32 34 33 34 34 35 34 35 35 33 850 MB ENV VOR 29 44 59 71 78 90 101 106 115 112 114 130 126 119 116 120 98 200 MB DIV 51 61 71 80 73 40 30 26 10 10 26 15 18 5 -36 -42 -47 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -8 -15 -12 -2 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 1 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 362 339 308 311 324 366 342 304 279 285 332 396 465 528 596 678 756 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.3 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.8 107.4 108.0 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.7 111.4 112.3 113.2 114.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 5 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 21 17 22 29 18 17 17 12 8 2 2 1 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 6. 8. 13. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 18. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.7 105.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/29/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.59 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 22.3% 18.9% 16.4% 13.0% 20.0% 15.7% 13.2% Logistic: 1.2% 7.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.8% 10.0% 6.7% 5.7% 4.4% 7.0% 5.5% 4.5% DTOPS: 7.0% 36.0% 17.0% 13.0% 14.0% 55.0% 50.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.9% 23.0% 11.8% 9.3% 9.2% 31.0% 27.7% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/29/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##