* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/29/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 59 64 68 73 76 76 78 76 77 77 79 83 86 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 59 64 68 73 76 76 78 76 77 77 79 83 86 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 59 60 63 65 67 68 71 75 79 84 85 82 81 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 11 12 14 10 11 10 8 11 4 4 4 8 6 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 1 3 3 4 -2 -6 -6 -5 -2 -6 -1 3 7 SHEAR DIR 31 37 46 52 34 71 57 32 44 77 135 100 80 55 360 77 69 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.9 29.5 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 28.7 27.5 27.3 26.7 27.1 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 153 159 164 161 162 161 159 149 137 135 128 132 132 133 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.8 -49.3 -49.6 -49.6 -49.1 -49.9 -49.3 -49.5 -48.9 -49.1 -48.2 -48.5 -48.2 -48.7 -48.5 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 78 76 66 63 64 60 61 62 57 54 54 54 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 28 31 33 35 36 36 37 36 36 37 36 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 53 61 68 87 117 107 113 140 126 143 128 115 119 132 122 200 MB DIV 43 41 77 69 73 75 43 38 39 14 14 20 17 -6 -43 -38 -32 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -8 -5 -12 -3 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 392 366 354 327 328 369 373 326 292 285 325 381 447 510 573 648 738 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.8 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.6 106.3 107.0 107.6 108.9 109.6 110.2 110.8 111.4 112.2 113.1 114.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 28 18 15 30 18 17 16 12 9 2 2 1 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 15. 16. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 21. 23. 21. 22. 22. 24. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.1 104.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/29/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 19.3% 16.4% 14.4% 11.1% 19.4% 15.8% 14.2% Logistic: 0.4% 4.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 8.6% 5.9% 5.0% 3.7% 6.8% 5.5% 4.8% DTOPS: 10.0% 18.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 14.0% 9.0% 9.0% SDCON: 6.7% 13.3% 6.4% 5.0% 3.8% 10.4% 7.2% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/29/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##