* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/29/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 51 53 56 60 66 67 73 75 79 80 81 84 87 92 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 51 53 56 60 66 67 73 75 79 80 81 84 87 92 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 53 54 55 57 59 61 66 73 80 88 94 96 93 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 13 13 15 16 11 13 9 7 7 3 3 4 4 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 4 4 1 1 5 3 1 -4 -2 -5 -3 -5 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 34 31 33 40 48 42 74 54 42 76 116 29 294 80 140 80 87 SST (C) 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.3 30.2 30.5 30.0 29.9 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.0 28.3 27.9 26.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 165 163 157 166 168 162 161 164 162 159 152 145 142 128 137 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -49.9 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.2 -49.3 -49.0 -48.8 -48.6 -49.0 -48.8 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 80 81 80 79 73 67 65 65 64 63 62 59 55 58 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 24 25 27 28 30 30 34 35 37 37 37 38 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 58 33 23 41 48 71 92 95 115 111 132 128 150 151 139 133 143 200 MB DIV 64 39 49 68 53 103 66 42 29 23 22 27 25 53 19 -23 -46 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -7 -7 -10 -11 -3 0 1 0 0 0 -1 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 416 389 371 354 325 313 332 379 350 315 303 304 310 352 413 508 664 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.3 17.0 18.3 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.6 105.4 106.1 106.8 107.8 108.5 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.8 111.4 112.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 7 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 30 32 24 20 34 21 17 18 16 12 9 4 3 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. 12. 12. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 13. 14. 16. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 17. 23. 25. 29. 30. 31. 34. 37. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.5 103.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/29/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 17.9% 15.0% 13.1% 10.0% 18.9% 16.6% 14.7% Logistic: 0.2% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 3.0% 6.9% 5.1% 4.4% 3.4% 6.4% 5.9% 5.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 41.0% 31.0% 30.0% 23.0% 22.0% 17.0% 22.0% SDCON: 6.0% 23.9% 18.0% 17.2% 13.2% 14.2% 11.4% 13.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/29/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##