* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/29/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 64 69 77 74 78 78 81 80 81 83 86 88 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 64 69 77 74 78 78 81 80 81 83 86 88 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 55 58 63 67 71 75 79 85 93 101 106 105 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 14 13 14 12 8 12 10 7 7 2 6 10 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 4 4 3 0 0 2 0 -5 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 32 33 25 34 43 56 75 72 41 29 105 43 196 187 121 105 120 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.4 30.5 30.6 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.2 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 165 162 158 168 168 163 161 161 163 165 162 154 145 140 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -49.9 -49.5 -49.8 -49.3 -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -48.7 -49.1 -48.3 -48.7 -48.4 -49.5 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 6 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 81 80 76 70 63 62 62 64 66 64 65 63 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 26 26 29 29 34 31 35 35 37 34 34 35 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 46 33 36 59 88 111 119 108 123 115 122 143 142 120 114 200 MB DIV 77 61 31 29 65 79 92 74 36 52 17 21 29 72 62 -7 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -7 -8 -6 -6 -3 4 3 0 0 0 -1 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 370 370 352 320 314 269 303 322 356 356 343 316 265 260 287 353 398 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.4 104.3 105.0 105.7 106.9 107.9 108.5 109.0 109.3 109.4 109.8 110.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 7 5 4 2 1 1 3 4 3 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 25 22 30 21 21 21 35 25 18 17 18 17 13 11 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 13. 10. 15. 15. 16. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 27. 24. 28. 28. 31. 30. 31. 33. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.3 102.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/29/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 20.4% 15.8% 13.2% 9.9% 19.9% 18.0% 16.6% Logistic: 0.9% 10.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.9% Consensus: 3.4% 10.6% 5.9% 4.7% 3.3% 7.3% 7.1% 5.9% DTOPS: 6.0% 25.0% 15.0% 13.0% 10.0% 17.0% 10.0% 7.0% SDCON: 4.7% 17.8% 10.4% 8.8% 6.6% 12.1% 8.5% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/29/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##