* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/28/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 49 53 60 64 70 71 72 75 78 81 84 87 91 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 49 53 60 64 70 71 72 75 78 81 84 87 91 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 47 48 51 54 57 60 62 67 76 88 98 103 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 16 14 14 13 16 11 12 12 4 5 2 2 4 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 10 6 5 0 0 4 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 22 27 30 26 30 70 53 78 61 54 25 345 293 209 108 171 174 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.3 30.0 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.2 29.4 28.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 164 165 157 164 168 166 165 161 163 166 165 156 147 139 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -49.8 -49.6 -49.8 -49.4 -49.3 -49.0 -48.9 -48.7 -48.9 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 6 7 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 81 80 77 72 66 62 64 63 63 63 62 62 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 24 25 26 29 28 31 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 32 45 48 47 34 48 55 98 113 113 121 123 117 133 134 112 123 200 MB DIV 80 80 53 27 24 78 115 73 49 65 39 15 15 14 56 21 7 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -3 -6 -7 -12 -4 0 3 1 0 2 -1 -1 1 5 LAND (KM) 365 358 362 341 326 291 292 328 327 349 365 316 261 236 264 301 285 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.4 15.9 17.1 18.1 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.3 103.2 104.1 105.1 106.4 107.4 108.4 108.6 108.9 109.4 109.8 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 9 8 7 4 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 21 24 29 24 22 31 35 29 18 18 18 11 12 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 16. 17. 20. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 19. 25. 26. 27. 30. 33. 36. 39. 42. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.9 101.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/28/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.2% 11.5% 10.2% 7.2% 16.2% 16.1% 15.5% Logistic: 0.5% 6.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% Consensus: 2.3% 7.1% 4.2% 3.6% 2.4% 5.7% 5.8% 5.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 29.0% 13.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.1% 10.5% 5.6% 4.8% 3.7% 17.3% 9.4% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/28/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##