* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/28/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 54 60 70 74 72 72 71 79 79 86 89 95 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 50 54 60 70 74 72 72 71 79 79 86 89 95 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 51 52 52 54 59 63 65 65 68 77 89 103 115 117 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 17 17 16 15 12 14 13 15 6 6 4 1 2 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 11 10 4 3 0 1 0 4 1 -3 -6 -3 1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 26 23 23 33 30 50 53 67 73 65 45 58 5 5 310 64 33 SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.6 30.5 30.4 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.6 30.1 30.0 29.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 163 164 164 159 159 169 166 161 161 164 169 162 162 160 146 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -49.6 -49.7 -49.3 -49.7 -49.3 -50.0 -49.1 -49.4 -48.8 -48.9 -48.4 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 8 6 7 5 7 5 7 6 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 81 80 79 72 67 59 59 65 60 57 50 52 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 24 25 26 26 30 31 30 30 28 33 32 35 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 45 51 47 45 59 86 106 125 123 132 131 135 137 138 104 200 MB DIV 67 63 77 61 39 62 83 99 51 39 51 34 7 -21 32 31 24 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 -1 -2 -7 -4 -6 -1 3 3 1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 365 356 350 345 325 290 270 305 339 363 370 318 216 187 184 203 188 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.9 17.9 18.7 19.5 19.7 19.7 20.1 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.6 102.5 103.5 104.4 106.0 107.0 108.0 108.8 109.1 109.2 109.6 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 8 7 6 4 1 1 4 4 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 17 27 27 20 23 21 32 22 20 17 13 11 12 19 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 10. 13. 11. 10. 8. 12. 10. 12. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 25. 29. 27. 27. 26. 34. 34. 41. 44. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.6 100.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/28/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.44 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 15.1% Logistic: 0.5% 5.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 0.3% 6.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 5.4% 0.5% 5.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% 9.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.1% 10.3% 3.2% 1.6% 1.5% 6.7% 4.7% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/28/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##