* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/28/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 45 50 56 64 73 79 75 77 77 80 81 87 92 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 45 50 56 64 73 79 75 77 77 80 81 87 92 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 44 44 44 47 52 57 60 64 71 81 92 105 115 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 20 19 18 17 12 11 10 17 13 11 9 3 5 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 11 11 10 3 0 4 1 -2 2 -4 -5 1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 42 25 24 23 30 30 40 39 75 74 62 9 314 208 224 246 203 SST (C) 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 163 162 163 163 163 158 168 169 166 166 168 168 167 168 171 157 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 -49.7 -49.6 -49.6 -49.4 -49.4 -49.4 -49.1 -49.0 -49.4 -49.0 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 85 86 84 84 84 81 75 72 65 61 64 64 58 58 61 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 22 23 23 24 25 25 27 30 34 32 34 33 35 33 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 35 44 44 39 40 67 106 128 129 121 139 132 117 105 111 200 MB DIV 98 76 70 89 73 42 74 86 102 79 21 29 19 29 41 27 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -2 0 -4 -2 -7 -2 -2 2 4 0 3 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 387 367 364 355 356 307 286 302 341 356 352 359 248 204 181 121 133 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 16.1 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.8 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.8 101.7 102.5 103.3 105.1 106.6 107.6 108.6 108.9 108.9 109.2 110.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 10 8 6 4 1 1 4 4 2 3 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 23 36 27 28 24 32 36 30 29 21 16 13 15 22 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 21. 22. 24. 27. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 15. 21. 17. 19. 16. 17. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 24. 33. 39. 35. 37. 37. 40. 41. 47. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.2 100.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/28/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.34 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 16.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.5% 5.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 2.6% 8.2% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/28/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##