* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/27/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 52 56 64 74 83 89 94 92 91 86 82 78 79 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 52 56 64 74 83 89 94 92 91 86 82 78 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 46 49 53 60 69 78 84 89 91 87 82 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 19 16 22 13 10 9 8 12 11 10 8 5 12 13 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 4 8 8 9 5 2 3 0 0 -1 -4 1 9 2 6 SHEAR DIR 48 50 48 30 26 22 36 62 58 67 62 28 343 186 139 187 229 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.2 30.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 164 162 163 164 162 161 163 164 164 164 167 165 167 157 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -49.6 -49.6 -49.5 -49.1 -49.1 -48.8 -48.8 -48.8 -49.0 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 86 85 84 82 77 74 67 58 54 57 59 54 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 21 23 22 24 27 30 33 38 38 39 35 32 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 37 50 45 40 34 44 45 60 73 114 129 142 127 153 139 110 102 200 MB DIV 48 112 122 87 77 74 66 88 117 118 94 59 41 31 62 2 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -4 -5 0 -4 -2 -5 -1 -4 3 2 0 -3 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 385 379 376 355 345 359 326 349 373 406 441 404 404 351 281 248 263 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.9 15.9 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.3 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.3 99.8 100.6 101.5 103.4 105.1 106.9 107.9 108.8 109.6 110.0 110.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 9 10 9 10 8 6 5 4 2 2 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 16 17 21 27 28 28 24 24 22 21 21 20 14 16 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 27. 29. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 9. 14. 20. 25. 30. 28. 26. 20. 15. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 29. 39. 48. 54. 59. 57. 56. 51. 47. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 98.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/27/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.03 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.1% 12.2% 10.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% Logistic: 0.5% 7.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.8% 9.5% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% Consensus: 2.7% 8.6% 4.4% 3.5% 2.4% 0.9% 3.6% 7.8% DTOPS: 7.0% 25.0% 13.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 17.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.8% 16.8% 8.7% 3.7% 2.7% 2.9% 10.3% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/27/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##