* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182026 09/27/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 52 62 72 83 89 89 89 89 84 82 79 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 52 62 72 83 89 89 89 89 84 82 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 52 59 66 70 73 78 82 84 83 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 25 18 14 11 9 14 12 17 18 15 14 14 15 18 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 3 7 8 8 4 4 5 2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 46 53 61 61 42 21 31 68 76 68 80 77 359 276 192 153 195 SST (C) 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 155 159 163 163 164 162 165 167 167 166 168 168 168 168 165 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -50.2 -50.5 -49.5 -49.5 -49.0 -49.7 -49.0 -49.2 -49.1 -49.5 -48.9 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 7 6 8 7 7 6 8 6 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 86 85 85 84 83 83 81 78 68 59 58 54 53 59 61 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 18 20 22 26 27 31 34 35 36 38 36 35 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 35 42 54 52 46 48 51 66 95 100 124 141 147 145 134 139 100 200 MB DIV 34 48 93 96 110 85 72 81 81 99 79 68 36 -7 44 42 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 0 3 2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 382 368 366 364 351 360 345 334 360 381 374 378 304 237 172 118 137 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.5 17.7 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.4 99.0 99.6 100.1 100.7 102.5 104.4 106.1 107.9 108.8 109.0 109.3 110.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 6 8 10 10 10 9 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 20 16 17 16 36 25 38 25 30 28 21 20 17 14 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. 37. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 11. 16. 22. 27. 27. 27. 26. 21. 19. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 32. 42. 53. 59. 59. 59. 59. 54. 52. 49. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 98.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 EIGHTEEN 09/27/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.7% 11.9% 9.8% 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 9.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 4.6% 11.2% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.9% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 9.1% 4.5% 3.5% 0.1% 7.0% 5.0% 2.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 21.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 12.0% 11.0% SDCON: 2.0% 15.0% 6.2% 2.7% 0.5% 6.0% 8.5% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 EIGHTEEN 09/27/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##