* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182026 09/27/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 51 55 66 74 77 82 87 84 81 79 80 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 51 55 66 74 77 82 87 84 81 79 80 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 41 45 49 53 57 64 75 80 80 83 86 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 23 24 22 17 15 16 11 8 11 9 16 14 14 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -1 3 6 10 5 5 3 5 6 -2 -1 -5 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 47 46 53 57 60 54 53 49 77 77 89 58 31 11 326 319 81 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.6 30.4 30.6 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.4 30.1 29.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 155 157 161 164 163 161 169 170 168 168 168 166 163 156 149 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -49.6 -49.5 -49.4 -49.3 -49.1 -49.3 -49.3 -49.0 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 85 85 80 81 77 69 62 54 48 50 51 51 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 20 19 23 26 27 32 38 37 37 36 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 32 47 45 45 56 61 92 100 120 127 152 144 141 131 118 200 MB DIV 48 26 31 80 92 86 62 67 84 51 78 76 43 31 36 32 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -7 -1 4 2 LAND (KM) 446 418 396 399 388 371 370 384 384 427 415 373 335 296 288 307 320 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 8 11 11 11 9 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 14 16 13 36 25 38 26 28 24 23 16 14 12 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 33. 35. 37. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 14. 19. 21. 26. 32. 28. 25. 22. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 21. 25. 36. 44. 47. 52. 57. 54. 51. 49. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 98.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 EIGHTEEN 09/27/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.15 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -55.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.53 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.9% 11.0% 9.1% 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.0% 5.7% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.9% 4.0% 3.2% 0.1% 5.7% 1.9% 1.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 20.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 12.0% 10.0% SDCON: 2.1% 13.9% 5.5% 2.6% 0.5% 4.8% 6.9% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 EIGHTEEN 09/27/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##