* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/27/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 105 101 96 84 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 108 105 101 96 76 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 107 103 97 91 72 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 12 14 19 40 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 4 7 7 14 7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 156 183 226 249 255 253 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.4 31.6 28.5 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 150 155 159 173 152 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.3 -49.1 -48.9 -48.5 -48.3 -48.0 -47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 59 58 61 58 52 56 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 23 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 39 41 41 78 96 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 7 2 -13 6 39 65 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -9 -8 -8 -2 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 419 332 240 147 82 43 -269 -695 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.4 23.3 24.2 25.0 27.0 29.7 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 113.9 113.8 113.4 113.0 111.3 108.7 105.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 11 15 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 6 9 34 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -11. -21. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -26. -37. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.4 114.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/27/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.10 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 559.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 11.8% 9.2% 8.8% 6.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/27/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##