* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/27/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 99 96 93 82 68 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 101 99 96 93 82 56 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 101 95 90 84 72 58 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 6 7 9 17 27 42 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 4 9 11 11 5 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 149 169 202 238 254 242 248 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.7 31.2 27.8 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 146 150 156 162 173 144 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 -49.1 -48.9 -48.3 -48.4 -47.6 -47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 5 6 5 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 67 60 59 60 55 51 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 24 24 23 18 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 42 44 34 33 40 87 100 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 15 11 1 -10 39 27 47 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -2 -7 -9 -8 -13 -19 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 445 390 326 232 152 12 -2 -356 -706 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 26.0 27.9 30.2 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.0 114.2 113.9 113.6 112.4 110.6 108.0 105.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 11 14 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 0 7 1 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -20. -29. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -7. -15. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -12. -23. -37. -40. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 20.8 113.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/27/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.13 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 -1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -78.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.84 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 13.3% 9.5% 8.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.7% 3.2% 2.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/27/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##