* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/27/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 93 89 87 82 72 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 97 93 89 87 82 60 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 96 89 84 81 72 52 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 11 9 15 21 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -3 2 7 11 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 99 116 148 184 228 256 246 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.9 30.5 30.0 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 150 149 149 154 171 167 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.7 -49.6 -49.4 -49.3 -48.9 -48.4 -48.0 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 6 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 75 68 62 61 59 52 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 22 22 22 15 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 35 50 46 39 32 58 77 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 19 18 18 -3 -4 37 53 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -3 -5 -6 -4 -4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 492 462 425 347 270 102 -16 -113 -449 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.9 26.5 28.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.7 114.1 114.1 114.1 113.2 111.8 109.7 107.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 9 6 5 1 6 5 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -27. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 2. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -11. -24. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -16. -18. -23. -33. -44. -46. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.8 113.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/27/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.14 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 -1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -80.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.86 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/27/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##