* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/27/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 97 95 93 88 81 75 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 102 97 95 93 88 81 66 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 101 94 89 85 77 67 53 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 11 10 9 12 20 37 48 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -4 -4 9 10 9 11 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 84 102 123 159 232 243 255 245 244 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.3 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.3 31.6 29.6 27.4 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 151 150 149 153 158 172 162 139 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.5 -49.8 -49.7 -49.4 -49.2 -48.7 -48.2 -47.8 -47.5 -48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 5 6 5 8 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 68 62 62 55 50 49 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 24 25 23 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 18 24 41 47 26 32 77 80 111 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 10 5 21 16 -17 7 13 42 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -7 -2 -3 -5 -10 0 0 12 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 528 496 479 425 357 196 56 65 -150 -435 -746 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.9 25.5 27.1 28.7 30.3 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.4 113.8 114.0 114.1 113.8 112.7 111.1 109.3 107.0 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 16 12 6 5 2 9 36 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -19. -29. -37. -45. -53. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 1. 4. 7. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -9. -8. -5. -2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -22. -23. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -15. -17. -22. -29. -35. -43. -45. -46. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.0 112.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/27/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -77.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.82 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/27/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##