* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/26/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 114 109 106 103 96 88 83 71 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 114 109 106 103 96 88 66 48 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 115 107 102 97 87 77 57 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 13 11 11 15 19 33 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -7 -4 2 10 7 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 84 95 112 131 202 228 245 253 241 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.3 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.8 30.4 30.2 27.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 157 150 150 149 153 170 168 141 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.4 -49.6 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -48.9 -48.4 -47.8 -47.3 -47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 73 73 74 66 60 57 54 53 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 24 25 26 26 25 22 18 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 21 36 53 39 34 58 78 91 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 22 5 -12 23 5 -13 40 36 45 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -8 -6 -5 -5 -3 -6 0 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 562 522 500 461 419 271 112 -24 -99 -391 -673 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.6 21.4 23.1 24.8 26.5 28.4 30.1 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.8 113.4 113.7 114.0 114.0 113.3 111.9 109.7 107.4 105.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 16 9 6 1 6 5 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -14. -26. -36. -46. -55. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -2. 1. 4. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -9. -7. -4. -0. 4. 6. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -24. -33. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -16. -19. -22. -29. -37. -42. -54. -65. -66. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.3 112.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/26/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.01 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -76.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.82 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/26/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##